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18 minutes ago, LHC said:

Recent survey: 50% of people do not want to pay more than $30k for a new EV. Here lies the problem.

 

This is where EV conversion can make financial sense (serious risks not withstanding). 

My understanding from YouTube interviews with people who actually do the conversions, is that they are not cheaper than a new EV.  They are a great idea for car nuts who want something green and unique and reliable ( hopefully, I know of some Hyundai Getz EVs conversions that we’re always off the road).  
 

A $30k car these days, while good, is an Econo box and is not a fair comparison with an EV.  Unfortunately It has been shown that people will pay to keep up with the Jones but wouldn’t pay a cent or cross the street to avoid ecological collapse in their grandkids lifetime . Ignorance is bliss I guess.  Oh, and if you think I am exaggerating on the collapse bit then consider this piece of science. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0185809

 

 

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1 hour ago, LHC said:

Recent survey: 50% of people do not want to pay more than $30k for a new EV. Here lies the problem.

 

This is where EV conversion can make financial sense (serious risks not withstanding). 

hi LHC it will just be matter of time... and price will come down. more competition more choices, greater scale. greater availability of things like lithium 

 

EV conversions have been around for 10 years or more even ? 

 

there are issues with conversions. reliability, safety, and also to consider crash safety. also can change a car completely from handling to balance. keeping in mind you can really load up a car with batteries... but if you dont uprate everything in consequence eg brakes, suspensions even chasis and structurally asking for trouble.

 

try getting insurance for a conversion see how go, 

 

bris. 30k is not econo boxes. you get a pretty decent family car these days for that. in small cars you get an upper model. heck little cars like a polo you get a gti ! these are VERY decent cars.

 

our own mazda sp25 we use as family car is a 30k car. hardly econobox  I woudl have thought but if want to call it that fine.

 

personally i think if want econobox you are talking sub $20k and even then heck our little fiat 500 at $13999 drive away was an amazing little car. solid well made kinda shows what a great car can get for even very little money in scheme of things.  these are realties of things.

 

EVs have to come down a heck of a lot for most folks before can afford. thats upto car makers to make more affordable, cant expect the government to do that job for them :) they'll never actually ever get any cheaper otherwise.

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3 hours ago, betty boop said:

hi LHC it will just be matter of time... and price will come down. more competition more choices, greater scale. greater availability of things like lithium 

Yes, prices will certainly come down no doubt, but the future is less certain. By the time BEV falls below the $30k mark, hydrogen cars may not be far behind. As Master Yoda said “Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future..”

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2020 Zoe 50kWh overview video.  To my mind this channel is where you go if you want to understand the pros and cons of any EV from an owner type perspective. The commercial review sites don’t give you real world insights and make all sorts of shortcut assumptions, like range for example. Bjorn is clearly only semi technical, but his videos do the hard yards that you don’t find elsewhere, and he has done this with every EV.

 

 

Someone like rmpfyf on this forum could do far better technical reviews ( he noticed a panel  misalign on a photo of my car that I was blissfully unaware of until the light hit it at an angle- not that I give a damn because overall the car is brilliant.....except Peugeot’s have nicer steering) but for an non-engineer Bjorn’s insights and comparisons are really useful.

 

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6 hours ago, LHC said:

Yes, prices will certainly come down no doubt, but the future is less certain. By the time BEV falls below the $30k mark, hydrogen cars may not be far behind. As Master Yoda said “Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future..”

 

well toyota and lexus upto 2 years ago at least has felt the world had gone EV mad and they wont, as believe hydrogen is the future 

 

https://www.caradvice.com.au/588509/hydrogen-is-the-future-not-battery-electric-cars-lexus/

 

batteries are the problem with electric I guess LHC. your video on conversions talked about it some issue with batteries in sourcing and environmental headache they will be in long term and large scale . this article talks about the other side ie how fast charge times are to detriment of batteries in the long term so never will be a solution.

 

anyways their take...i can see some problems with hydrogen as well. anyways... im fine to sit all these early days out. most people arent silly either. by waiting till something suitable comes along... suitable to them dont blame them for this thinking we are all entitled to it...and only ones that can decide for ourselves. by time tech settles / comes its only more likely to better suit folks needs budgets etc. 

 

there might even be some more future answer none of us has talked about or even thought off...yet :D

 

 

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Sorry but my prediction is hydrogen is dead and will remain to be relegated to a small number of dedicated uses where it excels, whilst the rest of the fleet will move to BEVs. It's just a prediction, I don't really care for all the arguments people have made for it.

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2 hours ago, Ittaku said:

Sorry but my prediction is hydrogen is dead and will remain to be relegated to a small number of dedicated uses where it excels, whilst the rest of the fleet will move to BEVs. It's just a prediction, I don't really care for all the arguments people have made for it.

probably right, but unfortunately the world doesnt go around on what the likes of you me care for :D 

 

have to have an understanding of the situation in japan for instance (toyota lexus homeland)..... they simply dont have the home charging facilities some countries have with garages or car ports and such (i have heard this for instance on multiple times from nissan direct). this is why Toyota one of THE largest car companies in the world remain with hybrids. why do you think the nissan note is their number 1 selling car in japan.... iwhere is the nissan leaf .... in the top 30 cars ? no where this is in nissans home country 

 

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/japan/2018-full-year-japan-best-selling-car-models-and-mini-cars/

 

EV market share in japan as shared already is a massive 1% ! and this is even with a pretty decent EV infrastructure....

 

read about the nissan note .. nissan hopes to convert the world to e-power... via the nissan note... its still an electric car that runs on petrol :)  ...it doesnt come with a plug.

 

by being a petrol electric series hybrid. ie the petrol engine never drives the wheels its used as a generator.... its an electric motor that drives the wheels. battery can stay small so you are not lugging around 500kg of battery(wasting energy) on top of whats used to move along what is a 1200kg car :)

 

https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/nissan-note-e-power-2018-review-111177/

 

so as much as some might want pure electric ... the folks in japan atleast seem to have other ideas with likes of hydrogen and petrol powered hybrids...

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1 hour ago, betty boop said:

so as much as some might want pure electric ... the folks in japan atleast seem to have other ideas with likes of hydrogen and petrol powered hybrids...

Fortunately as much as I love Japan and almost everything Japanese, there is a big world outside of Japan. They can do whatever protectionist nonsense they want for their industry but it won't affect the outside world.

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9 minutes ago, Ittaku said:

Fortunately as much as I love Japan and almost everything Japanese, there is a big world outside of Japan. They can do whatever protectionist nonsense they want for their industry but it won't affect the outside world.

not really sure why see it as some sort of "protectionist nonsense" id see more case of just making products suitable to their local marker. makes sense to make what your customers want ... I would think :D

 

yes big world outside of japan, however japanese car makers seem to make a great chunk of cars the big world outside seem to purchase :) 

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Quote

Recent survey: 50% of people do not want to pay more than $30k for a new EV. Here lies the problem.

Not for long...

 

But that price difference is going away, and sooner than you think. A Bloomberg analyst reported last week that the "crossover point" at which electric vehicles will become less expensive to buy than gas ones will come in three years, in 2022. A couple of years ago, analysts thought that day wouldn't come until 2026. What's changed since then is battery technology--batteries are getting smaller and less expensive all the time. If that trend continues, the crossover point could come even sooner.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, betty boop said:

not really sure why see it as some sort of "protectionist nonsense" id see more case of just making products suitable to their local marker. makes sense to make what your customers want ... I would think :D

Nah, they're just appealing to Toyota going down that path as I see it. I also said BEVs for the rest of the world is a prediction, not necessarily what I predict because I want it.

Edited by Ittaku

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1 hour ago, murrmax said:

Not for long...

 

But that price difference is going away, and sooner than you think. A Bloomberg analyst reported last week that the "crossover point" at which electric vehicles will become less expensive to buy than gas ones will come in three years, in 2022. A couple of years ago, analysts thought that day wouldn't come until 2026. What's changed since then is battery technology--batteries are getting smaller and less expensive all the time. If that trend continues, the crossover point could come even sooner.

 

 

Once people work out the maintenance cost is wipers, brake pads and tyres this could come even sooner. You can even cross out brake pads for the first 80-100,000km if your EV has decent regeneration and you drive nicely.

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1 hour ago, Ittaku said:

Nah, they're just appealing to Toyota going down that path as I see it.

If I was japanese id take that as a personal insult :D 

 

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23 hours ago, Briz Vegas said:

I was going to add something but you guys seem to have that issue covered.  I went for the long range Model 3, which at the time was also the fast one, and paid luxury car tax equivalent to about 10 years driving while paying fuel excise.  It’s not a mid spec luxury Merc inside ( nice enough for me however) so I paid tax to have a low emissions car that will allow long Sunday drives without needing to find a charger.  I have effectively paid my tax contribution to the roads upfront Thank you.

 

No... you paid taxes to buy a luxury car. As do people who buy ICE luxury cars. 

 

Though I think your argument come closer to a policy point than anything mentioned so far. EVs cost more, accordingly it's reasonable to suggest the LCT should kick in later - even moreso than for fuel efficient vehicles (what's are the cutoffs now - around $68k, $76k for 'fuel efficient' vehicles).... EVs should be later still, or completely exempt for a while yet - in their current volumes they generate little net revenue through LCT.

 

As it is this is an active discussion in Treasury, and if the likes of @proftournesol want to direct their considerable rage where vested interests play most prolifically, (in lieu of a carbon policy) raising hell over the LCT for EVs is a good start. 

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23 hours ago, LHC said:

Recent survey: 50% of people do not want to pay more than $30k for a new EV. Here lies the problem.

 

This is where EV conversion can make financial sense (serious risks not withstanding). 

 

50% of people don't want to pay more than $30k for a car, let alone an EV. Though I'd also bet closer to 100% of people want their car to crash like a new one if asked. Makes it a fringe industry, which makes the numbers low, which makes economies of scale poor, etc.... you get it.

 

Sales data the last few years indicates a decent number of people are happy to pay >$30k for a car. Market's moved upstream.

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12 hours ago, betty boop said:

well toyota and lexus upto 2 years ago at least has felt the world had gone EV mad and they wont, as believe hydrogen is the future 

 

Completely untrue. Caradvice can write whatever it wants, Toyota has never placed a sole bet on anything - and has always supported HEV, PHEV, BEV and FCV technologies. Ultimately they're all electric cars, they all have batteries, they all have electric motors and much of the rest of the ancillary components are the same. That the Japanese government sees a big part of its future in hydrogen isn't specifically Toyota. 

 

This is different to, say, Tesla which has bet the house on one technology set.

 

11 hours ago, Ittaku said:

Sorry but my prediction is hydrogen is dead and will remain to be relegated to a small number of dedicated uses where it excels, whilst the rest of the fleet will move to BEVs. It's just a prediction, I don't really care for all the arguments people have made for it.

 

Some places is just works best. For long-term high-energy-dense storage hydrogen absolutely slaughters batteries. For utilising (or protecting, depending how you look at it) existing fuel supply chains, hydrogen wins. There's a ton of applications where it wins just fine ta very much. There are even more where it's complementary. 

 

Technically it works - in many cases, well. That it's losing a marketing war to BEVs is completely correct. That it may never recover in the mass market... increasingly probably. In many markets and for many uses its effectively become Betamax in this discussion. 

 

8 hours ago, Ittaku said:

Fortunately as much as I love Japan and almost everything Japanese, there is a big world outside of Japan. They can do whatever protectionist nonsense they want for their industry but it won't affect the outside world.

 

Peek into the pack of your Model S and trace the origins of those cells - you might reconsider what's protectionist there. 

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