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betty boop

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51 minutes ago, betty boop said:

Tesla Honeymoon is over in California home of electric car...

Yeah, more bollocks. The narrative got tired years ago. Can't believe you're still pushing this.

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Edited by rmpfyf

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On 18/01/2020 at 8:07 AM, rmpfyf said:

.

 

Life cycle calculations imply that a very small proportion of items will fail before intended life. As in orders of magnitude less than 1%. This affects any industry. Functionality might be a guarantee but success isn't perfection, it's an engineering target managed via systems approach.

 

Done with your FUD for the day?

So is that 1% you are quoting like that 99.6% of roof up time on solar installation in another thread!  Very outstanding figures dont you think and it’s not the 1st time you have done this.

 

Typical engineer selling to justify then means and refused to accept failures usually quote these ideal managed approached.... and idea figures,   usually go defensive and in denial that there design needs a total modification when things fail to perform.

 

Oh BTW, I’m not looking at parts replaced under warranty, it’s after warranty that I’m looking at...

 

 

Edited by Addicted to music

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[Moderator post]can I remind you guys and a few here seem involved, That this is the chill out room and a discussion forum. Nothing wrong with challenging or arguing, but do it respectively. There is no need to make it personal, play The ball not the man. No need for FUD calls and such, discuss the issues and state case other wise if disagree, but do it respectively and without making it personal. [end moderator post]

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1 hour ago, Addicted to music said:

I’m not looking at parts replaced under warranty, it’s after warranty that I’m looking at...

 

From the point of view of the negative effect on the environment, it does not matter if under warranty or not.  It's all more poisons into the system.  People seem to STILL be fixated on carbon only btw.  That is NOT representative of the complete effect and damage done over the full life cycle.

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Edited by rmpfyf

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Edited by rmpfyf

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whats happening with Subaru and electric cars ? important as they are toyota partner in a few cars...

 

they say electrification, this is unclear as article says whether pure electric or hybrid...

 

https://www.drive.com.au/news/subaru-plans-shift-to-an-all-electric-line-up-by-mid-2030s-123121.html?trackLink=SMH2

 

"Subaru claims it will shift to an all-electric line-up of cars by the middle of next decade.
However, initial reports out of Japan are unclear whether or not this includes petrol-electric hybrids or a complete switch to purely electric cars.
A report by news agency Reuters quoted the president of Subaru, Tomomi Nakamura, as saying: “Subaru’s strong commitment and dedication toward car-manufacturing that we have cultivated throughout our history remain unchanged.”
The news agency said Subaru expected at least 40 per cent of its line-up sold worldwide to be purely electric or hybrid vehicles before 2030.
A statement on Subaru’s international website said: “By the first half of the 2030s (Subaru will) apply electrification technologies to all Subaru vehicles sold worldwide”."

 

some confusion also whether its 40% or all by mid 2030... but anyways expect some action over next 10-15 years by sounds of things...

 

some insight too in environmental commitment.

 

"To that end, the company said it planned to slash its “well to wheel” emissions (from sourcing raw materials to manufacturing a complete car) before the year 2050 by 90 per cent compared to 2010 levels."

 

thats over next 40 years...not unusual for a japanese company to have very long range plans - 100 years and such. 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, betty boop said:

whats happening with Subaru and electric cars ? important as they are toyota partner in a few cars...

 

they say electrification, this is unclear as article says whether pure electric or hybrid...

 

https://www.drive.com.au/news/subaru-plans-shift-to-an-all-electric-line-up-by-mid-2030s-123121.html?trackLink=SMH2

 

"Subaru claims it will shift to an all-electric line-up of cars by the middle of next decade.
However, initial reports out of Japan are unclear whether or not this includes petrol-electric hybrids or a complete switch to purely electric cars.
A report by news agency Reuters quoted the president of Subaru, Tomomi Nakamura, as saying: “Subaru’s strong commitment and dedication toward car-manufacturing that we have cultivated throughout our history remain unchanged.”
The news agency said Subaru expected at least 40 per cent of its line-up sold worldwide to be purely electric or hybrid vehicles before 2030.
A statement on Subaru’s international website said: “By the first half of the 2030s (Subaru will) apply electrification technologies to all Subaru vehicles sold worldwide”."

 

some confusion also whether its 40% or all by mid 2030... but anyways expect some action over next 10-15 years by sounds of things...

 

some insight too in environmental commitment.

 

"To that end, the company said it planned to slash its “well to wheel” emissions (from sourcing raw materials to manufacturing a complete car) before the year 2050 by 90 per cent compared to 2010 levels."

 

thats over next 40 years...not unusual for a japanese company to have very long range plans - 100 years and such. 

 

 

 

I believe the hybrid Subaru is due in here the end of Q1. of this year.....  fingers cross.....   it’s already been delayed.

Edited by Addicted to music

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3 minutes ago, Addicted to music said:

I believe the hybrid Subaru is due in here the end of Q1. of this year.....  fingers cross.....   it’s already been delayed.

They’ve somehow been jibbed in this partnership with Toyota too. It seems only using older tech hybrid ... can’t get car moving ... only works once car is moving ?

 

“Although Subaru’s hybrid system will not be quite as advanced as Toyota’s (the Subaru hybrid can’t move itself from rest, for example, rather it gives an electric boost once on the move), it is the first step in what is likely to be an ongoing partnership.”

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1 minute ago, betty boop said:

They’ve somehow been jibbed in this partnership with Toyota too. It seems only using older tech hybrid ... can’t get car moving ... only works once car is moving ?

 

“Although Subaru’s hybrid system will not be quite as advanced as Toyota’s (the Subaru hybrid can’t move itself from rest, for example, rather it gives an electric boost once on the move), it is the first step in what is likely to be an ongoing partnership.”

That’s why I didn’t wait..... Toyota holds the experience here.

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On 20/01/2020 at 12:40 AM, rmpfyf said:

Now this is far more serious... And more of a risk as control systems become more complex and yet more responsive.

 

https://electrek.co/2020/01/17/tesla-scrutiny-over-127-claims-sudden-unintended-acceleration/

 

Nothing proven yet though not unheard of - Toyota had serious issues (and coding bugs) around 10 years ago that begged belief, it'll be interesting to see if and how the remainder of industry learns.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/toyota-reaches-12-billion-settlement-to-end-criminal-probe/2014/03/19/5738a3c4-af69-11e3-9627-c65021d6d572_story.html

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This test was done on England to give you an idea on what the range of each model will do in temp of 10C...

 

How far will they go?  All done driving at the same time by follow the leader until the driver felt uncomfortable when the battery depleted....

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Tesla’s Autopilot vs Open pilot....

interesting comparison where one system that gets pass the regulation with multi sensors and an open system that just uses the camera on the phone...

Note that there’s is real good reason why there is a 3.0sec is required and that’s implemented into the Open Pilot....  Also watch how the Open Pilot responds when there’s no line markings.....

 

 

 

Edited by Addicted to music

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Edited by rmpfyf

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Edited by rmpfyf

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9 minutes ago, rmpfyf said:

 

The firm that did the forensic investigation into Toyota's firmware published reports online that are worth a read. Some amazing poor if simple design decisions. One bit flip and it's all over, and the only way to get out of it is to release the brakes completely and reset the throttle routine. Amazing and very fatal decisions... Worth a read.

It’s not a clear cut to say that’s the only issue, there are many issues at play here that results to the same effect.  

The drivers floor mats are now removed and placed in the boot as policy with Toyota servicing... 

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Edited by rmpfyf

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A Model 3 sighted this morning, first Tesla I've seen in the flesh :)

 

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22 hours ago, aasza said:

A Model 3 sighted this morning, first Tesla I've seen in the flesh :)

 

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That seems hilarious when you (me) have one just like it in the garage.  It’s so normal. Did the grocery shopping in it last night. Interesting how Aussies all seem to have the aero wheels.  Everyone on the internet has the 19 or 20 inch turbines for the look ( these are better to own).

 

Just been watching this broad ranging car discussion from 2014 ( even touches on hifi obsession briefly at 41 minute mark).  Interesting comments about the future of ICE, the BMW i8 ( looks like it’s craping a 911, hilarious) and the manual transmission.  On that last point, Harris talks about driving a manual in congestion and it reminds me of driving my 3 down to Byron Bay in holiday traffic.  It was just the right tool for the job in so many ways. You get on a congested highway, which is boring as hell with holiday stop start, pick a non aggressive lane ( let the angry people in a hurry for no reason take the two left lanes), set autopilot and let the car drive you through the congestion with sublime efficiency.  You just arrive in a better mood. Icing on the cake (right now only) is free NRMA chargers at your destination.
 

A petrol car would have been at its worst efficiency ( stop, start, idle idle idle) and you would have arrived feeling like you hated everyone or relieved just to get out of the car. No wonder people think Tesla drivers are smug.

 

PS, I took plenty of opportunities to leave the motorway on that trip.  Autopilot does a job, but it’s nice to take the driving back for mountain or B road driving.....then hand back to autopilot for the boring bits with congestion.

 

 

Edited by Briz Vegas

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Yeah, do we buy this.?  I mean, a supplier can let you down, but we are talking Mercedes here.  You would not piss off a customer as big and prestigious.  Look at their Brisbane dealership for example.  This is little Brisbane.  “ no Mr Mercedes, we can’t provide the promised volume for your SUV. We can provide 50%.  Maybe next year”.  I think not somehow,

 

 

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Edited by rmpfyf

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10 hours ago, proftournesol said:

more to this prof :)

 

check out recent bloomberg article below, talks about where tesla has created demand ... its not for anything else electric bar tesla... electric car sales volumes remain very tiny and there is soon to be a possibility of supply overwhelming actual demand....which no maker ever wants...

 

note comments from toyota, GM and Honda...

 

also note the quote below re findings by deloitte's...

 

"a study released by Deloitte this month found 27% of U.S. consumers are actively considering a hybrid, while just 8% are looking at pure electrics. Some 59% of Americans still want gasoline-powered cars, the highest of any country Deloitte surveyed globally."

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-21/tesla-created-demand-for-electric-vehicles-but-only-for-tesla

 

"A top American executive for Toyota Motor Corp., whose market value is still more than double Tesla’s even after Elon Musk’s epic run, recently warned of electric-car catastrophe. Auto retailers caution growth will be slow, citing still-high battery costs and range constraints. And far more U.S. shoppers are willing to kick the tires on a hybrid than cars that only plug in.

 
 

The cause for concern remains as EVs start to appear in showrooms in greater numbers. The models on the market will swell almost sevenfold to 121 models in the next half decade, from 18 now, according to LMC Automotive. But the researcher sees all those vehicles claiming just 5.5% of U.S. sales in 2025.

 

“We’re going to see electrified Armageddon,” Bob Carter, Toyota’s executive vice president of North American sales, told reporters in December. “Supply is going to get ahead of true customer demand.”

Many Models, Few Sales

Growth in number of EVs on U.S. market to outpace sales expansion

 

There is irony, of course, in Carter predicting an EV reckoning just as Tesla was wrapping up a record year. The dim view he holds is not unique among legacy automakers, which have spent more than a century building and selling cars that burn fossil fuel. But that cautious mindset is rooted in pragmatism -- profits remain elusive in the high-cost, high-price EV business.

That’s why Toyota and other automakers have been reluctant to dive head-first into EVs until they’re closer to reaching price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles, which BloombergNEF predicts will happen around 2024.

 

Tesla is being rewarded for not waiting: Its shares surged another 6% on Tuesday to $540.94, a new intraday record. The stock has doubled since Tesla reported a surprise third-quarter profit in October, bringing the company closer to a $100 billion market value.

 

 

EV sales are expected to grow to be roughly the size of the shrinking mid-size car segment by mid-decade, to about 934,000 units, LMC says. But whereas the meager family sedan market will be split between just 13 models, the researcher expects there to be more than nine times as many EVs fighting for air.

Thanks to its hot-selling Model 3 sedan, Tesla accounted for nearly eight-in-10 EV sales in America last year. By 2025, LMC sees Tesla offering seven models that will account for a quarter of segment sales. That would leave the 114 competing offerings from other automakers averaging annual sales of 6,145 per model, or about 118 units a week.

“It’s tough to make a business out of that volume per EV,” said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC. “Electric vehicles are the future. What’s in question is when that future will arrive and when it pays off? It’s a long road and there definitely could be some carnage along the way.”

Automakers, fearing they’ll be left behind if they don’t accelerate their shift from the internal combustion engine, are going to great lengths to build buzz for new electric models.

Ford Motor Co. staged a star-studded unveiling of its Mustang Mach-E in an airplane hangar a short stroll from SpaceX, Musk’s rocket company. Porschedebuted its Taycan using Niagara Falls, a Chinese wind farm and a German solar site as backdrops.

 

But with the notable exception of the Model 3, consumers have not been charged up by the highly touted electric offerings already on the market.

Sales of the Chevrolet Bolt sagged almost 9% last year and the Nissan Leaf slumped 16%, with neither cresting 17,000 units. Last month, Mercedes-Benz put off the U.S. debut of its first EV by a year after Jaguar and Audistruggled to sell their first electric offerings.

 

So far, only Tesla and its billionaire chief executive officer have come up with an alluring amalgam of status and sex appeal.

“Tesla has created the market by having a mystique,” said Art St. Cyr, the head of American auto operations for Honda Motor Co., pointing to Musk’s Model 3. “If Honda, Toyota, GM or Ford made that vehicle, we probably wouldn’t sell them in those numbers.”

 

Honda, Ford and Toyota, which all have a history of selling hybrids, see them prevailing for the time being because mainstream buyers continue to suffer “range anxiety” -- the fear of being stranded by running out of juice in an EV.

“People are not generally willing to pay more to be inconvenienced,” St. Cyr said.

General Motors Co. is jumping more aggressively into EVs, with plans to field 20 models worldwide by 2023 and sell 1 million by 2026. It’s joining forces with South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd. to build a $2.3 billion battery factory in Lordstown, Ohio, where the car manufacturer stopped buildinggasoline-fueled Chevrolet Cruze compacts last year.

“Customers aren’t interested in hybrids,” Mary Barra, GM’s CEO, said during an industry conference in November.

 

But a study released by Deloitte this month found 27% of U.S. consumers are actively considering a hybrid, while just 8% are looking at pure electrics. Some 59% of Americans still want gasoline-powered cars, the highest of any country Deloitte surveyed globally.

Government mandates have made China the world’s top market for EVs, and European regulators also are stimulating demand with incentives to help reach more stringent goals for reduced emissions.

But in the U.S., where President Donald Trump has sought to ease car-pollution rules and fuel is cheap, consumers are in no hurry to ditch the gas pump. The Deloitte study found consumers in the U.S. are most concerned about a lack of charging stations.

“The automotive ecosystem still has some work to do in terms of making EVs as easy and convenient as internal-combustion engines,” said Craig Giffi, Deloitte’s vice chairman.

BloombergNEF Theme: Scaling up EV Charging Infrastructure

The onslaught of new EVs coming could actually help solve the problem. Until now, most EVs other than Tesla’s have been boring “compliance cars” aimed at meeting tougher regulations, said Greg Brannon, director of automotive engineering at AAA, which just conducted a survey that found 96% of EV owners would buy another because the experience was better than expected.

“Most people are looking for a crossover utility vehicle these days,” Brannon said. “Now, we’re seeing some of those coming, and that’s what it’s going to take. It has to be something people want to drive and can get excited about.”

 

The pickup segment, home to the three best-selling models in the U.S., is about to get jolt, too. Musk caused a sensation with the unveiling of the Cybertruck in November. Ford has an electric truck under development recently filmed towing 1 million pounds of loaded rail cars. And Amazon.com Inc.-backed Rivian Automotive Inc. plans to roll out its R1T starting late this year.

But for all the hype about the chips automakers are pushing forward on the table, it’s unclear when or if their gamble will pay off.

“Somebody’s got to buy these things,” said Toyota’s Carter. “There is a market. The question is: How big and when will it mature?”

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Basically they're saying people who want EVs only want Teslas and they don't know how to fix that problem.

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