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51 minutes ago, betty boop said:

Tesla Honeymoon is over in California home of electric car...

Yeah, more bollocks. The narrative got tired years ago. Can't believe you're still pushing this.

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44 minutes ago, betty boop said:

Tesla Honeymoon is over in California home of electric car... the most enthusiastic adopter of electric cars ...a nearly 50% drop in sales is massive... attributable to few things suspect...pipeline fill ie initial demand early adopters satisfied ... trickles down to real demand post that. Also the subsidy artificially boosting sales is gone... meaning demand just drops to those willing to pay what actually costs...will same trend follow in other countries once pipeline filled... time will tell... and especially where other completion exists and arises with more brands models on the market ...

 

TSLA currently at $510 and there's a ton of Californians with stock.

Company is profitable. 

They beat their own sales targets. 

New plant opened in China, broke ground on a fourth in Germany. 

Currently the highest valued auto company ever led by the longest-serving current CEO in industry.

 

As for the report in your link, anyone knowing the Californian market knows most sales occur in the last two weeks of the month, and registrations take place some time after that. Registrations therefore do not equal deliveries. Additionally, there's a wait list for new Teslas in California - the company can't make them fast enough, and they're launching in other markets. 

 

Whilst they might fail one day, honeymoon's going just fine ta very much.

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On 18/01/2020 at 8:07 AM, rmpfyf said:

.

 

Life cycle calculations imply that a very small proportion of items will fail before intended life. As in orders of magnitude less than 1%. This affects any industry. Functionality might be a guarantee but success isn't perfection, it's an engineering target managed via systems approach.

 

Done with your FUD for the day?

So is that 1% you are quoting like that 99.6% of roof up time on solar installation in another thread!  Very outstanding figures dont you think and it’s not the 1st time you have done this.

 

Typical engineer selling to justify then means and refused to accept failures usually quote these ideal managed approached.... and idea figures,   usually go defensive and in denial that there design needs a total modification when things fail to perform.

 

Oh BTW, I’m not looking at parts replaced under warranty, it’s after warranty that I’m looking at...

 

 

Edited by Addicted to music

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[Moderator post]can I remind you guys and a few here seem involved, That this is the chill out room and a discussion forum. Nothing wrong with challenging or arguing, but do it respectively. There is no need to make it personal, play The ball not the man. No need for FUD calls and such, discuss the issues and state case other wise if disagree, but do it respectively and without making it personal. [end moderator post]

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1 hour ago, Addicted to music said:

I’m not looking at parts replaced under warranty, it’s after warranty that I’m looking at...

 

From the point of view of the negative effect on the environment, it does not matter if under warranty or not.  It's all more poisons into the system.  People seem to STILL be fixated on carbon only btw.  That is NOT representative of the complete effect and damage done over the full life cycle.

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1 hour ago, Addicted to music said:

So is that 1% you are quoting like that 99.6% of roof up time on solar installation in another thread!  Very outstanding figures dont you think and it’s not the 1st time you have done this.

 

Typical engineer selling to justify then means and refused to accept failures usually quote these ideal managed approached.... and idea figures,   usually go defensive and in denial that there design needs a total modification when things fail to perform.

 

Oh BTW, I’m not looking at parts replaced under warranty, it’s after warranty that I’m looking at...

 

(You seem to have missed the bit stating 'orders of magnitude' below 1%). 

 

Do you have any idea what a mean number of issues/failures per car is in industry? Targets? Acceptable?

Any idea how EVs and ICE compare here?

Where the failures are, how they evolve over project and industry life?

How they are/aren't under warranty and in what relevant magnitudes?

 

Your thesis here is basically 'failures happen and that's wrong therefore I'm right'.

 

There is no industry where anything vaguely is made or where processes occur where zero failure happens. It is a target at best that all work towards. Contrary to your BS, we (engineers) accept failures in that we investigate them, learn from them, apply corrective action and knowledge and move on. Which is why a bunch of (very) early Model S had motor failures, and why - now 3+ generations of motor design onwards - they don't. Which is a pretty good showing for a car that entered production in 2012 as the first ever series production electric vehicle of any mass-produced significance. And much like electric motors in just about any other endeavour, once working there is extremely little to break, so much so that motors usually outlast whatever they're installed in. 20 year vehicle life is a very short run for an electric motor. 

 

Do you have any idea what the motor failures were? How they were solved? How they related to the cars being EVs? What's different between typical electric motors (or previous EV designs) and that which debuted in the Model S?

 

Facts are - failure rates for EV powertrains are well below powertrain failure rates for all vehicle powertrains. 

No vehicle goes to market - even from top brands - with zero faults. It's an unfortunate reality that's an output of cars being made of thousands of parts from hundreds of suppliers into very dynamic systems. 

EV powertrain failures beyond warranty are projected to be remain extremely small. Same can't be said for ICE counterparts.

The failures in early Model S motors weren't actually related to electrical matters.

 

Ranting from behind a keyboard is cheap. 

 

1 hour ago, betty boop said:

[Moderator post]can I remind you guys and a few here seem involved, That this is the chill out room and a discussion forum. Nothing wrong with challenging or arguing, but do it respectively. There is no need to make it personal, play The ball not the man. No need for FUD calls and such, discuss the issues and state case other wise if disagree, but do it respectively and without making it personal. [end moderator post]

 

FUD's a fair observation of the comments made. Hardly personal. Issues are discussed and cases are stated.

 

The ball seems to be rather prickly with all the pucks shaped in one direction. Would suggest leading by example - the last few mod posts here seem consistently in defence of selective interests. 

 

23 minutes ago, aussievintage said:

From the point of view of the negative effect on the environment, it does not matter if under warranty or not.  It's all more poisons into the system.  People seem to STILL be fixated on carbon only btw.  That is NOT representative of the complete effect and damage done over the full life cycle.

 

No one is fixated solely on carbon - would re-read up - and most calculations are cradle-to-grave (full life cycle). 

 

There's a ton of work being done conflict minerals and a range of other issues. Carbon's just the easiest one to communicate publicly, though that doesn't mean other work doesn't exist. 

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Now this is far more serious... And more of a risk as control systems become more complex and yet more responsive.

 

https://electrek.co/2020/01/17/tesla-scrutiny-over-127-claims-sudden-unintended-acceleration/

 

Nothing proven yet though not unheard of - Toyota had serious issues (and coding bugs) around 10 years ago that begged belief, it'll be interesting to see if and how the remainder of industry learns.

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whats happening with Subaru and electric cars ? important as they are toyota partner in a few cars...

 

they say electrification, this is unclear as article says whether pure electric or hybrid...

 

https://www.drive.com.au/news/subaru-plans-shift-to-an-all-electric-line-up-by-mid-2030s-123121.html?trackLink=SMH2

 

"Subaru claims it will shift to an all-electric line-up of cars by the middle of next decade.
However, initial reports out of Japan are unclear whether or not this includes petrol-electric hybrids or a complete switch to purely electric cars.
A report by news agency Reuters quoted the president of Subaru, Tomomi Nakamura, as saying: “Subaru’s strong commitment and dedication toward car-manufacturing that we have cultivated throughout our history remain unchanged.”
The news agency said Subaru expected at least 40 per cent of its line-up sold worldwide to be purely electric or hybrid vehicles before 2030.
A statement on Subaru’s international website said: “By the first half of the 2030s (Subaru will) apply electrification technologies to all Subaru vehicles sold worldwide”."

 

some confusion also whether its 40% or all by mid 2030... but anyways expect some action over next 10-15 years by sounds of things...

 

some insight too in environmental commitment.

 

"To that end, the company said it planned to slash its “well to wheel” emissions (from sourcing raw materials to manufacturing a complete car) before the year 2050 by 90 per cent compared to 2010 levels."

 

thats over next 40 years...not unusual for a japanese company to have very long range plans - 100 years and such. 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, betty boop said:

whats happening with Subaru and electric cars ? important as they are toyota partner in a few cars...

 

they say electrification, this is unclear as article says whether pure electric or hybrid...

 

https://www.drive.com.au/news/subaru-plans-shift-to-an-all-electric-line-up-by-mid-2030s-123121.html?trackLink=SMH2

 

"Subaru claims it will shift to an all-electric line-up of cars by the middle of next decade.
However, initial reports out of Japan are unclear whether or not this includes petrol-electric hybrids or a complete switch to purely electric cars.
A report by news agency Reuters quoted the president of Subaru, Tomomi Nakamura, as saying: “Subaru’s strong commitment and dedication toward car-manufacturing that we have cultivated throughout our history remain unchanged.”
The news agency said Subaru expected at least 40 per cent of its line-up sold worldwide to be purely electric or hybrid vehicles before 2030.
A statement on Subaru’s international website said: “By the first half of the 2030s (Subaru will) apply electrification technologies to all Subaru vehicles sold worldwide”."

 

some confusion also whether its 40% or all by mid 2030... but anyways expect some action over next 10-15 years by sounds of things...

 

some insight too in environmental commitment.

 

"To that end, the company said it planned to slash its “well to wheel” emissions (from sourcing raw materials to manufacturing a complete car) before the year 2050 by 90 per cent compared to 2010 levels."

 

thats over next 40 years...not unusual for a japanese company to have very long range plans - 100 years and such. 

 

 

 

I believe the hybrid Subaru is due in here the end of Q1. of this year.....  fingers cross.....   it’s already been delayed.

Edited by Addicted to music

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3 minutes ago, Addicted to music said:

I believe the hybrid Subaru is due in here the end of Q1. of this year.....  fingers cross.....   it’s already been delayed.

They’ve somehow been jibbed in this partnership with Toyota too. It seems only using older tech hybrid ... can’t get car moving ... only works once car is moving ?

 

“Although Subaru’s hybrid system will not be quite as advanced as Toyota’s (the Subaru hybrid can’t move itself from rest, for example, rather it gives an electric boost once on the move), it is the first step in what is likely to be an ongoing partnership.”

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1 minute ago, betty boop said:

They’ve somehow been jibbed in this partnership with Toyota too. It seems only using older tech hybrid ... can’t get car moving ... only works once car is moving ?

 

“Although Subaru’s hybrid system will not be quite as advanced as Toyota’s (the Subaru hybrid can’t move itself from rest, for example, rather it gives an electric boost once on the move), it is the first step in what is likely to be an ongoing partnership.”

That’s why I didn’t wait..... Toyota holds the experience here.

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On 20/01/2020 at 12:40 AM, rmpfyf said:

Now this is far more serious... And more of a risk as control systems become more complex and yet more responsive.

 

https://electrek.co/2020/01/17/tesla-scrutiny-over-127-claims-sudden-unintended-acceleration/

 

Nothing proven yet though not unheard of - Toyota had serious issues (and coding bugs) around 10 years ago that begged belief, it'll be interesting to see if and how the remainder of industry learns.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/toyota-reaches-12-billion-settlement-to-end-criminal-probe/2014/03/19/5738a3c4-af69-11e3-9627-c65021d6d572_story.html

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This test was done on England to give you an idea on what the range of each model will do in temp of 10C...

 

How far will they go?  All done driving at the same time by follow the leader until the driver felt uncomfortable when the battery depleted....

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Tesla’s Autopilot vs Open pilot....

interesting comparison where one system that gets pass the regulation with multi sensors and an open system that just uses the camera on the phone...

Note that there’s is real good reason why there is a 3.0sec is required and that’s implemented into the Open Pilot....  Also watch how the Open Pilot responds when there’s no line markings.....

 

 

 

Edited by Addicted to music

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41 minutes ago, Addicted to music said:

 

The firm that did the forensic investigation into Toyota's firmware published reports online that are worth a read. Some amazing poor if simple design decisions. One bit flip and it's all over, and the only way to get out of it is to release the brakes completely and reset the throttle routine. Amazing and very fatal decisions... Worth a read.

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33 minutes ago, Addicted to music said:

Tesla’s Autopilot vs Open pilot....

interesting comparison where one system that gets pass the regulation with multi sensors and an open system that just uses the camera on the phone...

Note that there’s is real good reason why there is a 3.0sec is required and that’s implemented into the Open Pilot....  Also watch how the Open Pilot responds when there’s no line markings.....

 

 

 

Ha! I know the openpilot team well. Crazy program 

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9 minutes ago, rmpfyf said:

 

The firm that did the forensic investigation into Toyota's firmware published reports online that are worth a read. Some amazing poor if simple design decisions. One bit flip and it's all over, and the only way to get out of it is to release the brakes completely and reset the throttle routine. Amazing and very fatal decisions... Worth a read.

It’s not a clear cut to say that’s the only issue, there are many issues at play here that results to the same effect.  

The drivers floor mats are now removed and placed in the boot as policy with Toyota servicing... 

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24 minutes ago, Addicted to music said:

It’s not a clear cut to say that’s the only issue, there are many issues at play here that results to the same effect.  

The drivers floor mats are now removed and placed in the boot as policy with Toyota servicing... 

 

Not exactly.

 

Toyota fought very, very hard for an inconclusive ruling on this as a recall for their crap software would cost many times the settlement. In addition to a significant reputational impact.

 

Far from the same effect.

 

Would look up Koopmans or Barr on this topic. Pretty impressive work, petty shoddy programming by Toyota and affiliates.

 

Nothing's perfect.

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A Model 3 sighted this morning, first Tesla I've seen in the flesh :)

 

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22 hours ago, aasza said:

A Model 3 sighted this morning, first Tesla I've seen in the flesh :)

 

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That seems hilarious when you (me) have one just like it in the garage.  It’s so normal. Did the grocery shopping in it last night. Interesting how Aussies all seem to have the aero wheels.  Everyone on the internet has the 19 or 20 inch turbines for the look ( these are better to own).

 

Just been watching this broad ranging car discussion from 2014 ( even touches on hifi obsession briefly at 41 minute mark).  Interesting comments about the future of ICE, the BMW i8 ( looks like it’s craping a 911, hilarious) and the manual transmission.  On that last point, Harris talks about driving a manual in congestion and it reminds me of driving my 3 down to Byron Bay in holiday traffic.  It was just the right tool for the job in so many ways. You get on a congested highway, which is boring as hell with holiday stop start, pick a non aggressive lane ( let the angry people in a hurry for no reason take the two left lanes), set autopilot and let the car drive you through the congestion with sublime efficiency.  You just arrive in a better mood. Icing on the cake (right now only) is free NRMA chargers at your destination.
 

A petrol car would have been at its worst efficiency ( stop, start, idle idle idle) and you would have arrived feeling like you hated everyone or relieved just to get out of the car. No wonder people think Tesla drivers are smug.

 

PS, I took plenty of opportunities to leave the motorway on that trip.  Autopilot does a job, but it’s nice to take the driving back for mountain or B road driving.....then hand back to autopilot for the boring bits with congestion.

 

 

Edited by Briz Vegas

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