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mello yello

Electric Autonomous Vehicles - Future or Flop ?

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There does seem to be an issue with joining up the dots with this whole autonomous thing. We really need to do some modelling.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01441647.2018.1523253

 

Ok, I skimmed that article, too knackered to read it all right now, but I came away with the impression that “it’s still early days.”

 

 I think the problem of automated vehicles is equivalent to evolution. An evolutionary biologist will tell you that a critical characteristic of evolution is the individual functioning successfully at every stage of evolution.   Making history is even harder.   You need all those successful baby steps ot evolutionary stages to get you to your goal.  You need an autonomous vehicle that can navigate road rage and texting Chadults. If it can’t be successful then it doesn’t live to breed more hybrids with better adaptions.

 

Elon thinks he is near self driving with a car that relies mostly on cameras.  People drive that way every day he says.  People also understand human behaviour. Car AI does not.  I can sense that a car is being driven erratically, or that someone has been waiting a long time and will pull out into the smallest gap in traffic.  There is a lot more to driving than we think. The computer just sees a data point.   Put me in a foreign city with drivers I don’t understand and see how well I don’t drive until a adapt. Google has shown us the autonomous cars are not forgiven for the mistakes that they will definitely make.  AI needs to survive in a hostile environment before it gets to live an in auto-utopia with only other AI to deal with. It also needs to address and not add to congestion, parking, vehicle cost etc.

 

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I agree that it's early days which is a positive as there's time and opportunity for city planners to plan and proactively shape cities according to human needs rather than allow vehicles and new vehicle technology to drive future change. Planning and the implementation of these plans will itself take many, many years. I also agree that the development and availability of automated vehicles will occur through evolution, though one could argue that autonomous vehicles can be seen as an extension of autonomous trains which have been around for decades. Of course, trains operate in a much, much lower complexity environment.

 

The research paper you linked to was an interesting read and seems to align well with the Washington Post article. The opening sentence in many ways says it all: ‘Automated vehicles (AVs) could completely change mobility in the coming years and decades’.

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not in my life time says Steve Wozniak

 

https://www.caradvice.com.au/804294/apple-co-founder-steve-wozniak-slams-autonomous-cars-predicts-they-may-not-happen-in-my-lifetime/

 

“What we've done is we've misled the public into thinking this car is going to be like a human brain to be able to really figure out new things and say, 'Here's something I hadn't seen before, but I know what's going on here, and here's how I should handle it,' " Automotive News quoted Mr Wozniak as saying during the JD Power Auto Revolution conference in Las Vegas last week."

 

"It’s a U-turn from Mr Wozniak’s earlier belief that autonomous cars would eventually be able to read the road in the same way as a human."

 

 

It is therefore next to impossible, for now at least, for the technology to predict behaviour of other road users in busy city and suburban environments – and how to appropriately respond to sudden dangers.

Indeed, Automotive News reported Mr Wozniak said last week that autonomous vehicles would be better suited to certain roads “that are well mapped and kept clean of refuse, and nothing unusual happens and there's no road work”.

“The reality of current self-driving systems doesn't match up with consumers' expectations, but Mr Wozniak doesn't think that is their fault,” Automotive News reported."

 

 

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The new Taycan is amazing but Tesla started the game with some great innovation. Musk is a genius. If only we had the charging infrastructure in Australia. We're light years behind. Love to know where the "green" taxes go.

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