myrantz Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Not really... companies buy and invest in what technologies they want to sell, hence the large investment in OLED by all the major brands. The 3rd party companies that produce the panels can't do much if the major brand companies don't want to buy their panels any more... Once the production bugs are ironed out, OLED panels will be more economically viable and cheaper to produce than LCD/plasma. I kindda agree with Owen on that.. it will take OLED a while before it catches up with LCD/plasma price wise. Even when yields are improved to > 90%, LCD/plasma will always be cheaper.... OLED will never be able to compete on price... But it will compete on IQ... Some people will buy a 55" for $5k or so if there is a guarantee (different from warranty) and it will work at least 5 years (like any CE is supposed to!), and have a upgrade cycle of 3-5 years at least. The industry need to find a model to survive on getting $5-$10k from their customers every 3-5 year cycle, not 1. 1 is too short. Only enthusiasts will upgrade that quickly, most wouldn't. If the cycle is < 1, it doesn't make sense for the average joe/jane to dump $5-$10k. OLED will die like the kuro if they try to push technology at the pace they're doing now. And OLED is so much _better_ than the kuro!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSmith Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 OLED will never be able to compete on price... Whilst I appreciate your opinion, is there anything you have read to suggest this? Everything I have read suggests OLED will be very cheap to produce once production hurdles are overcome and production moves into mass... cheaper than LCD and most certainly plasma. JSmith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myrantz Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Whilst I appreciate your opinion, is there anything you have read to suggest this? Everything I have read suggests OLED will be very cheap to produce once production hurdles are overcome and production moves into mass... cheaper than LCD and most certainly plasma. coz LCD have a loooong head start basically... From what I have read so far - although OLED is cheap to produce, the factory themselves are expensive. OLED panels have to factor in the cost of the new facilities. Given the head start, and the quick 1 year life cycle before things get outdated... Don't think OLED has any chance to compete on price. Hope I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSmith Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 (edited) Hope I'm wrong though. Me too, especially since the CEO's of these massive muti-nationals have made huge investments in these OLED productions plants... I doubt they'd be completely wrong. JSmith edit, misquote. Edited February 26, 2013 by jsmith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myrantz Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Me too, especially since the CEO's of these massive muti-nationals have made huge investments in these OLED productions plants... I doubt they'd be completely wrong. You took out the word hope.. lol... Precisely due to those huge investments why OLED will never catch up on price.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSmith Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 [/size] You took out the word hope.. lol... Precisely due to those huge investments why OLED will never catch up on price.. Why would such investments be made if there was no return to be had? Never is a bold statement... JSmith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myrantz Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Why would such investments be made if there was no return to be had? Seriously? Never is a bold statement... For OLED to succeed they cannot win on price. LCD/plasma can afford to win with razor sharp margins, OLED don't have that luxury. Concentrate on IQ, give it a reasonable price... People will pay a premium as long as the timing is right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwd Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 IMHO I expect OLED to be become commonplace in the next few years in the quality side of the market with LCD/LED for the lower end of the market. I predict that Plasma is destined to fade into obscurity when OLED takes a market share. Whatever happened to that other technology SLED which was slated to be the killer for high quality screens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myrantz Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Whatever happened to that other technology SLED which was slated to be the killer for high quality screens. Canon killed it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owen Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Major corporations like Samsung and LG invest billions on future technology and the production systems needed to produce it to remain competitive in the long term, they may not see any profit from such undertakings for 5 to 10 years. The real issue for consumers is not if OLED will come to market but when good reliable products with a price to size/performance ratio that makes sense will be available to purchase, that would seem to be at least 3 years away at this stage in the game. Its going to be a very tough fight in the showroom for OLED. When compared side by side with dramatically larger and cheaper LCD's customers will wonder what all the fuss is about. OLED will be just another TV with little if anything to distinguish it from the myriad of LCD's, so getting people to pay even a modest premium for an OLED set is going to be a tough ask in deed. Today I was in my local HN and to my surprise found they have devoted over half of their floor space to 60" plus TV's. The Sharp 70" and 80", the Samsung 75" and the extremely impressive LG 84" Ultra HD where all on display along with a bunch of 65" and 60" models. No way retailers are going devote so much floor space to stock that does not sell and therefore Plasma's where pretty much absent. Against such opposition a stupidly priced 55" OLED does not stand a chance in hell. Those who want a 55" will buy an LCD for a fraction of the price and those looking for something really impressive will go for the really big LCD's for a similar price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSmith Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Major corporations like Samsung and LG invest billions on future technology and the production systems needed to produce it to remain competitive in the long term, they may not see any profit from such undertakings for 5 to 10 years. That may be the case, however that's not what the projections are (certainly not 10 years anyway)... my money's on the people that are paid alot of money to make such forecasts. The real issue for consumers is not if OLED will come to market but when good reliable products with a price to size/performance ratio that makes sense will be available to purchase, that would seem to be at least 3 years away at this stage in the game. Mate a TV that is for sale is about as far as most people go on reliability... if it's on sale they'll but it. I don't think companies will be releasing expensive products that aren't reliable (to the extent of consumer electronics). No one has said that it won't be 3 years before the OLED market takes over... who are you debating with? When compared side by side with dramatically larger and cheaper LCD's customers will wonder what all the fuss is about. OLED will be just another TV with little if anything to distinguish it from the myriad of LCD's, so getting people to pay even a modest premium for an OLED set is going to be a tough ask in deed. People will see a marked difference straight away... wow factor will sell them not to mention semi-enthusiasts that want the best and are happy to pay for it. Those who want a 55" will buy an LCD for a fraction of the price and those looking for something really impressive will go for the really big LCD's for a similar price. No one has disputed that that will be the case in the beginning... just like any other new product OLED panels will require time to mature in the market and increase in size. Resistance is futile... JSmith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myrantz Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The real issue for consumers is not if OLED will come to market but when good reliable products with a price to size/performance ratio that makes sense will be available to purchase, that would seem to be at least 3 years away at this stage in the game. As I see it the real issue is only me and JSmith are interested in OLED.. Today I was in my local HN and to my surprise found they have devoted over half of their floor space to 60" plus TV's. The Sharp 70" and 80", the Samsung 75" and the extremely impressive LG 84" Ultra HD where all on display along with a bunch of 65" and 60" models. No way retailers are going devote so much floor space to stock that does not sell and therefore Plasma's where pretty much absent. Against such opposition a stupidly priced 55" OLED does not stand a chance in hell. Those who want a 55" will buy an LCD for a fraction of the price and those looking for something really impressive will go for the really big LCD's for a similar price. The purpose of displaying 100" or UHD panels in the retail floor space is to draw people to go to that area of the business. They don't expect to sell 'em, the intent is to attract crowds to go to that area.. Personally I don't care which display tech is the king of the consumer market... I do agree with you a OLED doesn't stand a chance in hell, luckily we don't live in hell.. lol... Seriously though I hope enthusiasts or a hobbyists can at least give OLED a good shot. My faith now lies with the consumers, and not the manufacturer (they have ****ed this up splendidly ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Autocrat Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 IMHO I expect OLED to be become commonplace in the next few years in the quality side of the market with LCD/LED for the lower end of the market. I predict that Plasma is destined to fade into obscurity when OLED takes a market share. Whatever happened to that other technology SLED which was slated to be the killer for high quality screens. SED. It's DED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owen Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 That may be the case, however that's not what the projections are (certainly not 10 years anyway)... my money's on the people that are paid alot of money to make such forecasts. The likes of Samsung and LG also pay people a lot of money to talk up their business prospects and projected profits to hold up their share prices. I take all of it with a grain of salt, believe it when I see it. Mate a TV that is for sale is about as far as most people go on reliability... if it's on sale they'll but it. I don't think companies will be releasing expensive products that aren't reliable (to the extent of consumer electronics). No one has said that it won't be 3 years before the OLED market takes over... who are you debating with? You skipped over the issue of size/performance to price ratio. When people stand in the showroom and compare OLED to LCD they wont see any value in OLED. In 2012 we where led to believe that OLED TV"s would be on sale in 2013, now it seems its 2014 at the earliest. Could it be that OLED is not yet reliable and market ready. Do you really think OLED will "take over" in three years? They will have barely entered the market by then and market share will be tiny. It took over 20 years for LCD and Plasma to get to where they are now. People will see a marked difference straight away... wow factor will sell them not to mention semi-enthusiasts that want the best and are happy to pay for it. What "wow factor", in a showroom they will be just another TV, no more different then the various incarnations of LCD. Only way to make OLED look markedly different in that environmnet would be to set them up to display a wildly inaccurate picture. Once calibrated decent displays are about 95% accurate if not better, errors that small are not reliably visible. No way OLED will be perfect so the best we can hope for is a different flavor of imperfection. The only area where OLED stands out is in black level, and in a showroom thats irrelevant as LCD's have visibly perfect blacks in that environment already so OLED cant do better. The only time the black level advantage will be visible will be in a dimm to dark room so people wont get to see it in a showroom and few will care anyway. If black level mattered to consumers LCD would never have been the success it undoubtedly has been. A hand full of "enthusiasts" aren't buying enough product to get manufacturing volumes up and prices down to the point where they are competitive will LCD, that will take quite some time as it did with Plasma and LCD. SED was a technology that was supposed to be cheap to produce, was scalable to huge sizes, could be made flexible and ultra thin like a roll up projector screen. SED never got off the ground but OLED has similar potential and enough backing to make it happen, sooner or latter. The wheels of progress dont turn as fast as most of us would like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owen Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 As I see it the real issue is only me and JSmith are interested in OLED.. .... seems that way. I'm plenty interested in anything that will do the job better than whats currently available, but I cant get worked up over products that are still vapour ware. The purpose of displaying 100" or UHD panels in the retail floor space is to draw people to go to that area of the business. They don't expect to sell 'em, the intent is to attract crowds to go to that area.. Maybe, but the store in question was not large and floor space was very limited. The LG was not put out on display to draw attention, it was just in a row of TV's with a 75" Samsung on one side and a 70" Sharp on the other, you had to go into the TV section to see it. My main point is that all the largest size LCD TV's available in Oz where on display in this one store and outnumbered the 46" and smaller TV's. Its clear to me that market acceptance of large size TV's has increased markedly and there is a big push by manufacturers and/or retailers to sell them. Seriously though I hope enthusiasts or a hobbyists can at least give OLED a good shot. My faith now lies with the consumers, and not the manufacturer (they have ****ed this up splendidly ) Your faith may be misplaced, I suspect that the vast majority of consumers will send a loud and clear message that they are not prepared to pay a large premium for OLED. It will be a up to enthusiast types to keep OLED alive until it can be price competitive but enthusiasts have not been successful in keeping products like Kuro alive. Thankfully the likes of Samsung and LG should have the resources to keep OLED afloat long enough for it to swim on its own and eventually deliver it's full potential, but I suspect it will take more time them some people think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myrantz Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 .... seems that way. I'm plenty interested in anything that will do the job better than whats currently available, but I cant get worked up over products that are still vapour ware. Indeed. Somebody buy the first OLED here.. All looks at jsmith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSmith Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 [/size] Indeed. Somebody buy the first OLED here.. All looks at jsmith Not at $9000 - $10000 mate... JSmith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myrantz Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Not at $9000 - $10000 mate... Don't be too quick to judge.. Maybe when you see the IQ you couldn't resist... $9000 is just the cost of 3 root canals ... Given a choice what would a hobbyist do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSmith Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 You skipped over the issue of size/performance to price ratio. Size/performance is something that matters to you and me... Alot of people (especially some men's wives) can be rather fickle about these things. As you know this is why the thin and more expensive edge LED panels sell... they look good. OLED panels will look good, be thinner and thus will sell... even more so once cheaper. Do you really think OLED will "take over" in three years? They will have barely entered the market by then and market share will be tiny. It took over 20 years for LCD and Plasma to get to where they are now. Nah mate, more like 5 - 10... where'd three come from in the first place...? BTW OLED will be amazing not just for blacks, but for overall colour reproduction and motion... these are things people will be able to see, especially once drawn to them by sales persons. Anyway, at this point this is all just opinion and speculation. The technology itself I believe is very interesting on a technical level and the panels will be amazing IMO... something I personally am looking forward to, as I believe many others are here too. JSmith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DigitalObserver Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 This is how a reputable industry analysis sees it. In this period it as Owen sees it LCD (LED) is the huge market - 250 million in 2016 PDP is almost gone as are CCFL LCD The premium predictions likely look like this. 7 million in 2016: Source: http://www.displaysearch.com/cps/rde/xchg/displaysearch/hs.xsl/index.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSmith Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 This is how a reputable industry analysis sees it. In this period it as Owen sees it LCD (LED) is the huge market - 250 million in 2016 PDP is almost gone as are CCFL LCD Reputable...? Owen says we need to take that kind of information with a grain of salt... hmmm. There's many other predictions that vary and they are longer term forecasts such as ten years... that only covers the next 3 years and we all know that in that time OLED will have barely settled into the market. JSmith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jliang70 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Size/performance is something that matters to you and me... Alot of people (especially some men's wives) can be rather fickle about these things. As you know this is why the thin and more expensive edge LED panels sell... they look good. OLED panels will look good, be thinner and thus will sell... even more so once cheaper. Nah mate, more like 5 - 10... where'd three come from in the first place...? BTW OLED will be amazing not just for blacks, but for overall colour reproduction and motion... these are things people will be able to see, especially once drawn to them by sales persons. Anyway, at this point this is all just opinion and speculation. The technology itself I believe is very interesting on a technical level and the panels will be amazing IMO... something I personally am looking forward to, as I believe many others are here too. JSmith The general sweet spot for TV pricing is around $2k to 3K not $9K to $10K when 60 inch OLED is priced at that sort of region then they will sell. Don't believe the hype so much. If you actually calibrated a current plasma or LED TV you know most of them can be calibrated close to industry reference level. Just go to the HDTV test UK site have a look at Samsung E8000 ( a mid market plasma) the calibrated accuracy on that set is almost spot on. OLED may improve on contrast ratio and gamma but I doubt it will achieve massive improvement in accuracy compare to what we have at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DigitalObserver Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Reputable...? Owen says we need to take that kind of information with a grain of salt... hmmm. Ranked in the worlds top 25 research organisations, but you make your judgement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NPD_Group I don't doubt that as yields/volumes increase so will OLED market. These figures put it at less than 3% in 2016, so it will take time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myrantz Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The general sweet spot for TV pricing is around $2k to 3K not $9K to $10K when 60 inch OLED is priced at that sort of region then they will sell. Don't believe the hype so much. If you actually calibrated a current plasma or LED TV you know most of them can be calibrated close to industry reference level. Just go to the HDTV test UK site have a look at Samsung E8000 ( a mid market plasma) the calibrated accuracy on that set is almost spot on. OLED may improve on contrast ratio and gamma but I doubt it will achieve massive improvement in accuracy compare to what we have at the moment. That still makes 2 in the pro OLED camp... Again all look at jsmith to get the first one on DTV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSmith Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 The general sweet spot for TV pricing is around $2k to 3K not $9K to $10K when 60 inch OLED is priced at that sort of region then they will sell. Well aware of that, and in fact I agree... some of my previous comments assumed that we were talking in the future rather than upon release. JSmith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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