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AUD up to 70 US cents this morning, further proof no one knows wtf is going on in the world economy.

you beat me to it ... and as has been said, considering there wasn't a 50% drop in prices when the dollar went from 60c to 98c, I still think this is mainly scaremongering to bolster sales leading up to christmas.

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AUD up to 70 US cents this morning, further proof no one knows wtf is going on in the world economy.

Never has a truer word been spoken :lol:

Economist: Someone who can tell you tomorrow, why what they predicted yesterday, didn't happen today.

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AUD up to 70 US cents this morning, further proof no one knows wtf is going on in the world economy.

It hit 69.8c this morning because the US Fed has dropped interest rates again. This is the expected reaction to a rate movement. When we drop our rates, it'll go back down. But it will go back before the next RBA announcement anyway. Reality sets in quickly. BUT THERE IS NO MORE ROOM FOR THE US TO DROP RATES FURTHER! The US is now at 0%!!! Can't see them giving us money to borrow money.

The Aussie will be back to 67c in a day or so and will be around 60-65 by the end of the month. It is predicted to trade down in the high 50's, until June after which it will see some growth. Naturally, we live in a global economy and other countries may take actions that will either help or exacerbate this view, but there is strong evidence this is the scenario for 2009.

The other thing is, for a whole host of reasons, the dollar may recover a little earlier than predicted and that will be good. The RBA has already shown that it does not want the dollar to be below 60c (where it traded in November), but it is not all bad for the economy that it does trade down lower. Our exports are more competitive at these rates and that should stimulate some sales. But like anything including the subject here, TVs, if there are no buyers, then the prices may remain flat. But remember, if the darn cost of a thing rises above the sell price, the price just has to rise. It will all depend on how much reserves the manufacturers, distributors and retailers have and how much pain they can absorb. My industry has little more room for the pain and belt tightening... prices will have to rise. It is as simple as that.

Sony is shedding somewhere between 8-16,000 workers (I've seen both). Manufacturers are shedding workforces worldwide, car plants are too, and not just the crippled US auto makers, Toyota is and so is everyone else in the auto business. There is going to be forced holidays on workers while business reduces inventories over the next few months and the prices and giveaways now are a good way of helping them move excess units.

Yes, prices do have a relationship to supply and demand. That's Keynsian economic theory. But Keynes is not well regarded these days. Keynesian theory does not always work. What we have at the moment is an unprecedented drop in worldwide confidence. With good reason I should add. Bush and his bunch were so fixated with Bin Laden and Iraq they all took their eye's off the financial controls... spent money like water... and the wolves in finance industries took complete advantage.

A lot of 'wishful' commentary is what many 'hope' will happen based on the recent history of prices in this business sector. It seems to me that a lot of you may not have experienced a 'real' recession nor the impacts before. Unfortunately I am old enough to have been though a couple. The drop in the currency is still yet to have reached full impact and it won't for 3 months or more. When (and I'll add IF) the dollar does drop to the mid 50's or below, there will be just plain financial reasons why prices will rise, just like the computer gear is already going and so on. Tyres for example are already having rises of 10% to 30% including some of the big guys. That is called "cost push inflation" and if that occurs during a recessionary period it is called stagflation. That is cost is pushing up prices despite there being little demand and a contracting economy.

Demand for big screen TV's has been bolting along for a couple years now. If demand were the sole factor, prices would not have dropped. Some of the drop is because supply is strong, meaning cost per unit is lower, but also because the recent strength of the Aussie dollar has enabled imports to be sold at lower prices too, and competition is strong being a third. As supply diminishes, the inventories reduce, and forward cover runs out, prices will rise like night follows day.

In the end, if you don't want to buy a new telly, that's fine, but if, like me, you were ready to purchase, now is most likely a good time. If you think it is just retailer scare-mongering, that's fine... it does happen of course... "beat the price rise" is even older than me as a legitimate sales pitch. Trouble is if you think that is all it is then there will be a few who might just be eating their hats next year.

Righto.. that's all from me... I'm going back to my crystal ball! :ninja:

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Here is my take on the price rise issue. Look at the US street price of the display your are interested in and compare it to the price you can get here (after currency conversion), if the price is about the same you have a top price so I recon it’s a good idea to buy now.

Typically we pay a significant premium over US price for electronic goods, but at the moment there are some good deals on offer.

I was looking to purchase new digital SLR camera, first I looked at the best price I could get on line from well known US discount houses and Ebay, I then walked into a major Sydney retailer and asked if they could match the online price, to my surprise they said yes. I know a deal when I see it so I said “done, hook me up”.

Only 6 months ago I would have been able to save over $500 on a similar purchase by purchasing from the US even after paying fright, the price differential was so great.

The salesman said the price would go up in the new year, and under the circumstances I believe him. Existing stock was obviously obtained when the AU dollar was high and new shipments of stock will obviously cost more, hence a price rise is almost a certainty.

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Here is my take on the price rise issue. Look at the US street price of the display your are interested in and compare it to the price you can get here (after currency conversion), if the price is about the same you have a top price so I recon it's a good idea to buy now.

Typically we pay a significant premium over US price for electronic goods, but at the moment there are some good deals on offer.

I was looking to purchase new digital SLR camera, first I looked at the best price I could get on line from well known US discount houses and Ebay, I then walked into a major Sydney retailer and asked if they could match the online price, to my surprise they said yes. I know a deal when I see it so I said "done, hook me up".

Only 6 months ago I would have been able to save over $500 on a similar purchase by purchasing from the US even after paying fright, the price differential was so great.

The salesman said the price would go up in the new year, and under the circumstances I believe him. Existing stock was obviously obtained when the AU dollar was high and new shipments of stock will obviously cost more, hence a price rise is almost a certainty.

Hi

Just curious what camera were you looking at and what price did they match and which retailer?

Thanks in advance

Jelliemillie

Edited by jelliemillie
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Hi

Just curious what camera were you looking at and what price did they match and which retailer?

Thanks in advance

Jelliemillie

Nikon D90, cheaper then adorama.com in the US from HN Auburn

Edited by Owen
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Here is my take on the price rise issue. Look at the US street price of the display your are interested in and compare it to the price you can get here (after currency conversion), if the price is about the same you have a top price so I recon it’s a good idea to buy now.

Typically we pay a significant premium over US price for electronic goods, but at the moment there are some good deals on offer.

I was looking to purchase new digital SLR camera, first I looked at the best price I could get on line from well known US discount houses and Ebay, I then walked into a major Sydney retailer and asked if they could match the online price, to my surprise they said yes. I know a deal when I see it so I said “done, hook me up”.

Only 6 months ago I would have been able to save over $500 on a similar purchase by purchasing from the US even after paying fright, the price differential was so great.

The salesman said the price would go up in the new year, and under the circumstances I believe him. Existing stock was obviously obtained when the AU dollar was high and new shipments of stock will obviously cost more, hence a price rise is almost a certainty.

I've been doing the online price matching thing with brick and mortar stores for years now, it's great - search online, go to one store for a pricematch, then to another store to pricematch or beat the other store. Last time I did this was a few days ago actually - grabbed 2 Canon IXUS 870s at 'below cost' to the retailer this way.

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Nikon D90, cheaper then adorama.com in the US from HN Auburn

Owen,

I went to HN Auburn on Tuesday looking for the same exact camera The Nikon D90. They had a big sale on that day but the prices they offered werent great and they werent willing to budge on the price.

Can I ask what lens kit you got and how much you paid?

You can PM me if youre not happy to post it on the forum.

Cheers

Sunil.

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On a similar topic -

I'm looking at buying an AV Amp.

On phoning around today I was told, by more than one source, that both Yamaha

and Pioneer are increasing their prices by on January 1.

In fact some retailers have already increased their prices e.g.

Yamaha RXV-1900 and 2900 have increased approx. 10% already

So it looks like increases are on the way, but more likely in the vicinity of 10 - 15%

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I see Steve in the Eastwood newsletter is announcing pretty much across the boards prices rises in the order of the OP.

So maybe there is some merit in thinking there will be display price increases too.

But I still think stores will try to be competitive especially with the downturn, and will try to absorb cost rises.

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Righto.. that's all from me... I'm going back to my crystal ball! :ninja:

Great analysis pfeff, if anything it will be interesting to see what playes out next year. Especially whether or not Australia will slip into recession, which many think will not happen.

I still believe in the Keynsian model for 'luxury' items, it's pretty rare that stagflation will apply to the likes of panels, it's far more likely to apply to necessities such as food, fuel and the like. You are right that Keynes doesn't work everywhere, most notably in wine sales where increasing the price can increase demans because many wine buyers equate price with quality.

The average mortgage holder ($350k mortgage) will soon have an extra $250 a week in their pocket more than they had in July, and their transport costs are down by about 30%. That's a K.Rudd $1000 handout every month for these people (even people like me with a split loan are pocketing around $200 per month in interest savings). If this is enough to keep Oz out of recession, AND consumer confidence holds, then demand for luxuty items will hold, and cost-driven prices may flow through to consumers.

My uneducated opinion is that growth in the economy will slow but not slip into recession, but consumer confidence will remain low next year meaning many people will put off luxury purchases like Panels, boats, home extensions etc..

I guess the other possibility is that if price rises do come through, people may move to cheaper panels and stop buting Bravias and Pios?

Let me know of you get your crystal ball working; mine has been broken ever since I bought into T2 :blush:

Josh.

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you beat me to it ... and as has been said, considering there wasn't a 50% drop in prices when the dollar went from 60c to 98c, I still think this is mainly scaremongering to bolster sales leading up to christmas.

Everyone is saying the dollar is going to drop further against the $US. This shouldn't be the case - there is a lot of support at the 60c mark - if it goes below that then we can pretty safely see the low 50's

We are only a few days off the 10 year anniversary of the bull run in the market. Expect to see oil bottom potentially Friday or Monday US time with an upswing in oil prices from there on in.

This will serve to devalue the US$ further. At this stage I can't see the $AU currency weakening only strengthening unti the Res meet again.

All IMHO of course .....

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Everyone is saying the dollar is going to drop further against the $US. This shouldn't be the case - there is a lot of support at the 60c mark - if it goes below that then we can pretty safely see the low 50's

We are only a few days off the 10 year anniversary of the bull run in the market. Expect to see oil bottom potentially Friday or Monday US time with an upswing in oil prices from there on in.

This will serve to devalue the US$ further. At this stage I can't see the $AU currency weakening only strengthening unti the Res meet again.

All IMHO of course .....

My prediction is the A$ will rise again, above 0.70 in the next 6 months.

We shall see though.

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Owen,

I went to HN Auburn on Tuesday looking for the same exact camera The Nikon D90. They had a big sale on that day but the prices they offered werent great and they werent willing to budge on the price.

Can I ask what lens kit you got and how much you paid?

You can PM me if youre not happy to post it on the forum.

Cheers

Sunil.

me too?

thanks

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My prediction is the A$ will rise again, above 0.70 in the next 6 months.

We shall see though.

I should have said 6 hours.

It's over 0.70 now!

How about I revise to over 0.80 in 6 months?

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Check this review - DisplaySearch

With the ongoing economic turmoil unlikely to improve in 2009, DisplaySearch has dramatically revised its TV market forecast for 2009, especially for the fastest-growing LCD TV category. As shown in the DisplaySearch Q4’08 Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report, worldwide revenues are expected to fall year-on-year for the first time since LCD TV was launched in 2000. The key factors are reductions in forecasted TV prices and revised forecasts for Y/Y shipment growth for LCD and PDP TVs in 2009, down by 7 and 6 points from previous, respectively. LCD TV revenues are forecast to fall 16% Y/Y to $64 billion in 2009, and total TV revenues will fall 18% Y/Y to $88 billion. DisplaySearch expects that 2009 will be the most difficult year yet for the TV industry and supply chain.

My point is - the prices will go down.

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You have to factor in nearly year old rumours that big brand companies are planning big price drops soon. This article suggests price DROPS for this and other reasons:

For serious TV hunters, here is some more great insider's advice from Jim Willcox, senior editor of Consumer Reports.

Big brand-name TV makers such as Sony, Samsung and Toshiba have started to lose their tolerance for upstart, lesser-known TV makers (such as Vizio) sneaking into the market with private-label brands for warehouse and discount stores. The Big Guys are just starting to fight back with their own lower-priced models. They may not have every bell and whistle, but they can cost $300 to $400 less than their own mainstream versions.

Full article:

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/dec/14/bz...-hdtv-on-pause/

Edited by #Darren
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I'm inclined to think that prices won't go up. It seems like a trick to reel in people who are holding out to buy, probably as they rushed it in the last couple of years during the "xmas sale" times, only to find the same things much cheaper only weeks later.

What are they going to do with all those TVs they have in stock after the xmas rush, while the new models get announced? Increase the price? I think not...

Even if they raise a price to save face, just picture RRP going up from $4k to $5k and the TV still selling for the same $3k amount as it did before.

As far as AUD, the commodities need to rally, which should happen, though lowering the interest rates doesn't help, also USD will drop itself as they kop it some more.

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Is this thread run by retailers or what?

I don't think it's run by retailers but it's clear that the big manufacturers' scare tactics are starting to affect many individuals. They're desperate to snatch the free dollars handed out by the Federal government and if they've got to scare their way into people's wallets, so be it.

Myer Sydney had a funny poster up - "My true Rudd gave to me" and spruiked some perfumes. This proves that retailers want to grab Rudd's handout and ensure that people don't pay off their loans (but preferably go deeper into the debt hole and pull the stores out of their debt hole).

I saw another example of scare tactics today - a Mercedes Benz showroom put up huge stickers saying "Beat the 2009 price rise". This is in a scenario where sales of luxury brands are really at rock bottom - is anyone willing to believe this ?

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If you step back just a little and get some perspective what is on offer compared to even two or three years ago ... ALDI for example have just sold a heap of 22 inch WS LCDs with built in HD tuner for around $400. Walked out of our local branch here. Not the best brand or quality perhaps but right next to me (I'm on the laptop in the bedroom) is a sony 21 inch CRT analogue that cost me the grand total of $420 in 2003.

Adjusted for inflation that's probably more than $500 in today's dollars, at least. You can grab a 32 inch plasma for about that now. Currently the aus dollar is back to what it was very few years ago, at 70 US and around 43 pence UK so any current 'blips' in the price of imported gear due to our currency is soon going to be overtaken by the constantly downward trend of all our DTV goodies. IMHO.

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Myer Sydney had a funny poster up - "My true Rudd gave to me" and spruiked some perfumes. This proves that retailers want to grab Rudd's handout and ensure that people don't pay off their loans (but preferably go deeper into the debt hole and pull the stores out of their debt hole).

I saw those posters too - very amusing.

Read an article as well that game console sales spiked the day the $1000 bonuses were given away. Just goes to show how people have their priorities set right <_<:rolleyes:

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I bought one of those Aldi 'Vivid' branded 22" HD LCD's for $399.

Bought for the kitchen and sits perfectly on top of the fridge.

Picture is excellent whilst sound is less so.

Still cannot believe the quality of the HD picture for this price.

Not as good as my Pio LX508A Plasma of course but more than acceptable for the kitchen or bedroom.

If you step back just a little and get some perspective what is on offer compared to even two or three years ago ... ALDI for example have just sold a heap of 22 inch WS LCDs with built in HD tuner for around $400. Walked out of our local branch here. Not the best brand or quality perhaps but right next to me (I'm on the laptop in the bedroom) is a sony 21 inch CRT analogue that cost me the grand total of $420 in 2003.

Adjusted for inflation that's probably more than $500 in today's dollars, at least. You can grab a 32 inch plasma for about that now. Currently the aus dollar is back to what it was very few years ago, at 70 US and around 43 pence UK so any current 'blips' in the price of imported gear due to our currency is soon going to be overtaken by the constantly downward trend of all our DTV goodies. IMHO.

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Been following this thread for a while now, and after all considerations and conversations with sales staff (who aren't out to get my cash), I believe the price will increase in the New Year, though it will be in steady increments rather than a smack bang 30% as such.

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I think there will DEFINITELY be a price rise as I have just bought something.

Hmm... or

I think there is NO WAY there will be a price rise as I am too much of a tight-arse all my life and I am forever holding out for the next price drop, while being eventually seduced by the next new model, then waiting for it's price to drop, thereby never buying anything.

In the end, if you are being truly objective, and have actually been following the market recently shopping for stuff, you will have to come to the conclusion that the current/next generation models of HDTVs WILL increase in price relative to what they are today, and there will be less people buying them. The superceded models WILL drop in price, as they always do, but will be relatively more expensive than the superceded models today, and there will probably be a greater proportion of people buying recently superceded models who may have previously gone for the latest and greatest.

If the price is right now for what you want now - just go buy the darn thing. The same thing in a years time WILL cost less - but who doesn't know that??? The same thing, if it is a new-release el schmiko model, may well be more expensive in 2 month's time though - but if that bothers you, just wait around for it to go obsolete and there you will have your price drop. Simple. B)

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I saw those posters too - very amusing.

Read an article as well that game console sales spiked the day the $1000 bonuses were given away. Just goes to show how people have their priorities set right <_<:rolleyes:

Well the cash was given with the intention of being spent again so they are doing exactly what they were asked to. I on the other hand havent spent it as my wife wont let me buy a new screen.

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The most it can do is go up for a short time and then come tumbling down as new models are released twice a year. It's not even worth spending much because you're better of buying cheap, putting the saved money on a loan or similar and then buying a new TV every 2 years (while selling the old one) - a cheap TV in 2 years will beat some costly stuff now that if bought will have you stuck watching it for a while.

Eg I remember 2 years ago, Samsung 32" LCD (720p) with about 5k contrast for $1800 was a great xmas bargain (RRP $3k), it even had an inbuilt tuner - WOW :P . Now LG sells you a 42" for $2k with a bonus 26" that is way superior in PQ to the 2yr old Samsung...

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Prices will rise. I am a wholesaler in sports industry and one of our major brands is costing us 44% more to buy than 6 months ago, this is due to to AUS dollar drop and factory price rises.

We have made, and still making, massive price rises among our brands. 20% for starters with another 10-20% to come.

As for prices not dropping while dollar was high, in effect they did. You did not notice it because they simply did not rise when we were all being hit with uge factory price rises due to tha massive increase in raw material prices.

We were able to offset factory price rises with the better dollar. Beleive me all irtems are way cheaper than they should really be, now it will flip the other way.

As we see oil and steel drop in price factory cost will drop, but we have to weight 6+ months before that filters through fully. By that time our dollar will have droppped even further.

Buy now, I am which is why I have stumbled across this thread, as I kick into full research mode.

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Prices will rise. I am a wholesaler in sports industry and one of our major brands is costing us 44% more to buy than 6 months ago, this is due to to AUS dollar drop and factory price rises.

We have made, and still making, massive price rises among our brands. 20% for starters with another 10-20% to come.

As for prices not dropping while dollar was high, in effect they did. You did not notice it because they simply did not rise when we were all being hit with uge factory price rises due to tha massive increase in raw material prices.

We were able to offset factory price rises with the better dollar. Beleive me all irtems are way cheaper than they should really be, now it will flip the other way.

As we see oil and steel drop in price factory cost will drop, but we have to weight 6+ months before that filters through fully. By that time our dollar will have droppped even further.

Buy now, I am which is why I have stumbled across this thread, as I kick into full research mode.

well said.

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Prices will rise. I am a wholesaler in sports industry and one of our major brands is costing us 44% more to buy than 6 months ago, this is due to to AUS dollar drop and factory price rises.

We have made, and still making, massive price rises among our brands. 20% for starters with another 10-20% to come.

As for prices not dropping while dollar was high, in effect they did. You did not notice it because they simply did not rise when we were all being hit with uge factory price rises due to tha massive increase in raw material prices.

We were able to offset factory price rises with the better dollar. Beleive me all irtems are way cheaper than they should really be, now it will flip the other way.

As we see oil and steel drop in price factory cost will drop, but we have to weight 6+ months before that filters through fully. By that time our dollar will have droppped even further.

Buy now, I am which is why I have stumbled across this thread, as I kick into full research mode.

See thats where i have an issue. The cost of oil and raw materials dropped pretty much along with the crash of economies which was about 2-3 months ago. Why wil it take another 6 months for those effects to be felt? And why would wholesale prices go up 44% when the AU $ dropped max 30 cents which should really only attribute to about 30%. All seems a bit wrong to me. Plus also remeber that sporting goods industry is very different to elctronics. Electrical items depreciate very quickly. I think its very hard to compare it to many other industries where pricing is relatively static.

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As we see oil and steel drop in price factory cost will drop, but we have to weight 6+ months before that filters through fully. By that time our dollar will have droppped even further.

Why would the AUD tumble even further ? I thought our economy was in better shape than the US, and their dollar is rising instead !

The most important issue here is whether the AUD can retain a stable exchange rate compared to the Chinese Yuan, Korean Won and Japanese Yen. Most TVs come from these countries, not the USA.

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I saw those posters too - very amusing.

Read an article as well that game console sales spiked the day the $1000 bonuses were given away. Just goes to show how people have their priorities set right <_<:rolleyes:

An update on "My true Rudd gave to me" -

I can confirm that gaming consoles, perfumes/cosmetics, jewellery, watches and TVs were selling like hotcakes. I was shopping for groceries yesterday and the crowds in the mall were maddening, even worse than last year. What worries me about all this spending is that it makes the "all is well with the world" bubble bigger and when it finally bursts in 2009, it will be almost impossible to recover from the recession even in 3 years' time.

That's exactly what Bush and his buddies in the US Federal Reserve were hoping for - keep slicing interest rates and keep delaying the collapse of the banking/insurance majors till Jan 2009, when Bush would be gone. We know that things have taken an ugly turn there but the stalling tactics pushed several other firms deeper into the hole. If they had admitted that the situation was grim in 2008 and started to take firm steps back then, it wouldn't have been as bad as it is now.

Obama is going to carry out the first half of his presidency with an empty wallet and will need to make a lot of hard decisions. As for Kevin 747, he can smile all he wants now because the Aussie wallet is empty now and that stupid grin will be wiped off his face in the 2009 budget.

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