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andythiing

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andythiing last won the day on August 7 2015

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About andythiing

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  • Birthday 23/02/1968

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  1. we have been well conditioned for pace of change with consumer electronics over the past 10 years and I think that has occurred to a lesser degree with the rapid advances in auto features even in current ICE fleet - im pretty sure their will be a health "bargain" orientated market for older EV technology if the underlying quality holds up - despite any gap in features with newer models.
  2. and from the same e-news another local assessment that highlights some challenges - see link for all the tables etc Bottom line is that electric vehicles in Australia still face barriers David Leitch 18 April 201918 April 2019 0 Comments Twinkle twinkle little star, what you say is what you are Averages are not the only facts – the commentary section This analyst note tries to set out some facts about electric vehicles as they apply in Australia. We draw on ABS, Department of Transport, Greenhouse gas and Energeia as our main sources. As there are quite a lot of unit conversions there may well be some errors. And I’d note I still recall a childhood memory of reading vehicle and pronouncing it “vechile,” and enduring (more than 50 years of) embarrassment. I don’t plan to spend much time on EVs, but the lack of facts in the public discussion to date is disappointing. My bottom line is that EVs still face barriers. I doubt that cost is the main one – it’s the lack of model choice and the lack of infrastructure and the compromises still required in the few models that are available. I use my own situation to think about the averages. Apparently 99 per cent of car trips are less than 50km, or a round trip of less than 100km. However, even though many of my own trips fall within that range, many do not. Charging an EV in a country town is unlikely to be easy right now. The choice in EV models is still very limited. I drive a compact station wagon (estate if you will). It’s perfect for my needs, in terms of flat boot, easy city parking and performance. There is no equivalent electric vehicle in Australia. Never mind the price. Even the newer EVs still require compromises. Look at the Hyundai Ioniq, in terms of spare tyres and boot space. So I don’t drive an EV. Despite the readership base of RenewEconomy, most reading this article don’t drive an EV either. The problems are probably going to go away, but it’s not going to happen in a hurry. This is one industry where Australia depends on the international market to provide supply. Still, better and future-proofed charging infrastructure would definitely help local importers to push their offshore bosses, as will the prospect of 25K per year of government orders. A Paywalled Economist article notes that it’s mostly luxury brands moving to EVs because their buyers can afford the premium. Mercedes, for example, has committed $A16 billion of investment, aiming for 20 per cent EV sales by 2025. BMW, losing money on its i3 hatchback, wants to build compromise platforms. Mid-market car companies are making noises, but are a long way from committing to big investments. They don’t make enough margin to just go for it. It’s probably at least four to five years from commitment to fully fledged products, so this automatically means the model ranges available in Australia will be limited. Toyota, for instance, is planning 10 models by the early 2020s, but is probably still half committed to hydrogen. The superstar is VW, investing $A50 billion on EV manufacturing capacity and another $A80 billion on battery manufacturing capacity (so I’m hanging onto my lithium shares). That investment is expected to result in 22 million EVs over the next 10 years, with 70 models by 2028. So for Australia, as things currently stand, VW as an historically mainstream brand is likely to be very important. Its “ID” hatch back will cost €30,000, still expensive in Australia. It also just unveiled an SUV (essential in the Australian and probably USA market). Finally, The Economist notes that VW has 40,000 global suppliers in the value chain, so this industry can be disrupted by simpler EVs from the likes of Tesla or, say, Dyson. In short, Australia can do much better on EVs in the short term, but mass popularity is unlikely until the model range greatly increases and that will take years. On to the facts… National aggregates and light vehicle aggregates Transport in Australia of all forms has carbon emissions of about 100 mt (out of ~550 mt Australian total emissions). Figure 1, below, carries an estimate that cars (broadly defined) are about half that. The rest is trucks, shipping, air travel. Figure 1: Summary statistics on transport and light vehicles. Sources varied ALP policy ALP clean energy policy states the following on transport:  Government target of 50 per cent EV sales by 2030;   Government vehicle purchases to be 50 per cent EV by 2025;   20 per cent investment allowance (ITK interpretation) for business EV purchases. The release quote is “immediately deduct 20%”;   A $100 million investment on a $ for $ basis to build a $200 million charging infrastructure fund. Based on the above announcements we estimate as follows: Figure 2: ALP EV policy economics. Source ALP website, ITK Note: This table estimates an after tax value of $2,600 based on an electric car costing $43,000 and assumes there is no claw back of the 20% depreciation allowance. That’s clearly an incentive but EV’s will still be more expensive in capital cost. See below for a lifetime NPV calc. Secondly we estimate the cost to the fuel levy once 50% of fleet sales are EVs at just $141 m each year, but of course that is the annual growth in the reduction of the fuel levy so in 10 years its $1.4 bn per year if there are 2.5 m EVs on the road. If 50% of fleet vehicles were EV its roughly 25% of total car sales. Also if 50% of Federal Govt car purchases are EV that’s about 25 K per year. A decent contract for someone, I’m guessing Hyundai are in pole position right now. For the fuel tax levy we calculate: Figure 3: Impact of just 0.25 m EV on fuel tax levy Source: ITK EV v Petrol fleet purchases Comparing cars seems more complicated than comparing wind and solar farms. There are various tax rules and in some years there are investment allowances, private/business uses, log book methods, blah blah. Our comparison is as simple as we can make it. The cars are owned for eight years, with 25 per cent reducting balance depreciation. Only fuel and service costs and tax benefits are allowed for. We compare a supposedly equivalent $30,000 petrol car with a $43,000 electric car. We use a discount rate of 8 per cent. Each car is assumed to be traded in at the end of eight years for its book (depreciated) value. In the case of the electric car, where Hyundai warrants the battery for eight years or 160,000 km, we really should allow for a replacement battery. If we did, we estimate it would reduce the net trade-in to about zero. That’s on the assumption that battery costs fall 15 per cent per year for the next eight years. You can also make an argument that both the electric and petrol cars will be technologically obsolescent in eight years and neither should have a trade in value. Perhaps we will all use autonomous vehicles. For rural dwellers the idea of autonomous vehicles running round farm tracks would seem to offer cartoon possibilities, but let’s not worry about that. Let’s imagine that TV ad of a 4WD cresting the mountain top, showing off its suspension, then the faces of passengers as they realise its not an ad but they really are off not only the beaten track but any track…. I look forward to reader comments pointing out all the assumption and calculation errors I’ve no doubt made. No inflation is allowed for in either electricity or petrol. We can make an argument that supports that assumption, but its not critical. Each car does 13,000 km per year. First the electric car. Figure 4: EV total cost of ownership. Source: ITKe Then the petrol car. Figure 5: Petrol car cost of ownership. Source: ITK Regarding charging A detailed and excellent study of charging was prepared by Energeia for ARENA and CEFC. We reproduce a table from section 1.4.1. It’s column 3 you want to focus on, which shows a 5 minute charge, or less for the electric car in this study, at a cost of less than $10. Figure 6: EV charging models NV gas stations means electric gas. Source: Energeia https://reneweconomy.com.au/bottom-line-is-that-electric-vehicles-in-australia-still-face-barriers-41774/?utm_source=RE+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=5cb7cf74a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_04_18_04_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_46a1943223-5cb7cf74a2-40268281
  3. I know this is just one set of figures and is obviously based on a set of assumptions that need to be reviewed etc but again it highlights to me how quickly things may be changing if we are seeing preliminary result like this already - not tomorrow - but also not in 20 years! Tesla Model 3 costs less than a Toyota Camry to own: report • April 18, 2019 • Bridie Schmidt The new Model X. Source: tesla.com New analysis suggests that the total cost of ownership of a Tesla Model 3 over three years is likely to be less than that of the very popular (and cheaper upfront) Toyota Camry. At least, that is the case in the US, where this analysis by Ark Invest has been done, but it is likely to be a similar story in Australia, even if the final pricing for the Model 3 in Australia is still very much a matter of speculation. According to the Ark analysis, it not just the base Standard Range Model 3 that pips the Camry at the post on total costs – even the Long Range Model 3, which at the time of printing cost $US44,500 ($A62,055 at today’s exchange rates, plus transport and local GST), comes in under the Camry. Ark analysts base their calculations on resale figures from Kelley Blue Book (which showed the Tesla Model 3 tops the list for electric cars with 69.3% resale value ), as well as maintenance and power costs for 15,000 miles (24,000km) per year over a three-year period. They put a cost per mile for the Long Range Model 3 at just 51 cents, well under the Camry’s 57 cents total cost of ownership (TCO) per mile, although a little above the Ford Focus’s 48 cents TCO per mile over three years. For Toyota, whose top-selling Camry has been experiencing declining sales (an 11% drop in 2018 according to Car Sales Database), its becoming clear that the cheaper running costs of electric cars are impacting sales as buyers are increasingly taking TCO into account when purchasing new cars. As noted by Toyota North America CEO Jim Lentz, Tesla is putting a dent in sales, and not only the Camry; the Prius has also lost sales to Tesla. It appears there is also room for further growth for the Tesla Model 3, too. Sam Korus, who reported on the calculations for Ark Invest, notes that while a comparison of “cash price” for sales of cars in the US is traditionally used to frame potential demand for vehicles, a comparison of TCO may be more accurate. While the Model 3 made for just 15% of sales on vehicles at its price point or higher in 2018, when TCo is taken into account, there is far more room to grow. Worth noting is the fact that car pricing – of any make or model – is not static; the frequent shift of pricing for the Model 3 in the US is already indicating a slightly higher TCO for the Long Range Model 3 against the Camry. Neither is the Standard Range Model 3 available any more through Tesla’s online store, although they can still be bought via a visit to showrooms. Nevertheless, based on current pricing for the more popular Model 3 Plus which costs $US39,500 ($A55,082 at today’s rates), less the current US federal government rebate of $3,750 ($A5,229), the TCO over 3 years still works out at just under 50 cents per mile (see link here for Ark’s calculations). see link for charts https://thedriven.io/2019/04/18/tesla-model-3-costs-less-than-a-toyota-camry-to-own-report/?utm_source=RE+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=5cb7cf74a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_04_18_04_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_46a1943223-5cb7cf74a2-40268281
  4. im pretty sure the first NEW car either of my teenage daughters (16 and 19) buy will be EV - im guessing that's around 5 or so years away - and I should add that I have never personally purchased a new car (had some company supplied cars brand new) and suspect I may never do so - im happy for others to wear the "depreciation off the lot " - my next purchase is likely to be a diesel 4wd t replace my current gas guzzing petrol landcruiser with a cracked head - but I hope in my lifetime ill have the option to own an EV 4wd - im going to have to wait a while until they hit the second hand market and are in my price range ;-)
  5. Interesting article on Aunty about Tesla China factory - potential game changer? https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-18/elon-musk-tesla-gamble-on-china-but-will-local-rivals-thwart-him/11003118
  6. Apologies it was a smart arse comment on my part - did not mean to dispute your experience but just highlight we can all get a bit tribal about brands - I’ve never owned coopers nor have any intention of owning them - I have no doubt about your experience and it’s good you are sharing with others 👍
  7. understand that completely - and Im sure it will be those with more disposable income that move first - but in my experience with solar installation its often those with more limited income that do their homework and may well elect to make sacrifices and invest in new technology if they can be assured it will reduce their costs over time - also I suspect option will increase quickly in the "glorified shopping trolley" segment and might surprisingly disappear quickly in the ICE segment - im happy to guess that by 2025 im going to be really surprised at the pace of change - and im almost certain you will be 2030 ;-) But I am a dreamer
  8. Article on latest report on cost comparison https://thedriven.io/2019/04/17/electric-cars-cheaper-than-petrol-diesel-from-2022-as-battery-costs-plummet/?utm_source=RE+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=5ba60f7e40-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_04_16_11_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_46a1943223-5ba60f7e40-40268281 New analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance suggests that from 2022, the cost of electric cars will start to drop below that of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. It has been noted, not least by today’s recent poll issued by the Climate Council, that many drivers are waiting until electric cars are at least as affordable as ICE equivalents before making the switch to electric. They may not have to wait long. As noted by Nathaniel Bullard at Bloomberg, ” The crossover point — when electric vehicles become cheaper than their combustion-engine equivalents — will be a crucial moment for the EV market.” For this reason, BloombergNEF regularly assesses the cost of purchasing EVs against equivalent ICE models, and Bullard notes that the disparity between EV/ICE pricing is getting smaller every year. In this year’s bottom-up analysis, the figures indicate that as soon as 2022, large EVs in the EU will be cheaper than their ICE equivalents. The reason behind this is by and large due to falling battery prices – which for years amounted to around half the total cost of an electric car. But that percentage is less and less, with batteries in today’s EVs only accounting for a third of the total cost. By 2025, BloombergNEF’s analysis predicts it will be as low as 25%. Falling battery costs are not the only contributor to price parity for EVs, author of the BloombergNEF report Nikolas Soulopoulos notes. Chassis and body costs will also drop, he says, while the same are likely to rise for ICE vehicles that will need to add measures to comply with stricter emissions targets. Additionally, with market demand increasing for electric cars, large-scale production (and hence per unit cost reductions) of electric drivetrains will also become a factor in falling EV prices – in fact, Soulopoulos suggests that by 2030, motors, inverters and power electronics costs could be 25-30% less than today’s costs. The figures from BloombergNEF’s analysis adds weight to similar recent reports, such as one from the International Council on Clean Transportation that says that electric cars could be cheaper than petrol/diesel as soon as 2025. Another, issued in January by market analysis and research firm Deloitte, says that with 21 million EVs predicted to be on the road by 2030, the total cost of ownership for EVs could be on par with ICE equivalents as soon as 2021 in the UK, and globally by 2022. This would be good news for Australians, who are seemingly putting off buying a new car over the next four years while they wait for more electric options. With half of 861 Australian voters surveyed in the poll issued today by the Climate Council saying they will wait until electric cars are as affordable as petrol and diesel equivalents, price parity for electric cars won’t come a moment too soon. So if we just agree to accept this prediction as accurate surely we would have to see 50% of all new cars sol in Australia being electric by 2030!!! That's another 7 years on with additional technology advances. Sure ICE might try and compete in some segments and cut costs but if most of the main players head down this path its almost a done deal. Now of course these predictions could be wrong - but buy how much - are we really thinking that in 2040 or 2050 the vehicle fleet will be run by petrol or diesel? I think its much more realistic that change will come in the next 5 to 10 years and it will be really fast - and I can tell you from direct experience the public servants who should be planning for this are a long way behind the technology - as are most of the politicians. - think about it - even if only one party is finally talking about this as a realistic option do you think they are ahead of the game - do you think they are that smart!!!! Governments in Australia have been asleep at the wheel on transport policy for the past 2 decades - and the past 5 years in a really big way - blind freddy new we where heading for massive change! Ask yourself are feeling lucky punk? Do you think you can rely on state and federal governments to get the policy setting and infrastructure planning right?
  9. just listened to toady's episode of conversations with Richard Fidler - interviewing Mark Scott - no direct reference to electric cars - but a great discussion about change and his experience/perspectives with technology change in media/society - eg apple iphone, streaming etc - great insights into how little "the experts" actually understood what was coming at them so quickly - we don't know what will happen for certain but all those that question the pace of change we might see should listen to this - just to help us all open our minds as to what might occur!
  10. Umm aren't Hercules made by coopers?
  11. is that a Nissan with a merc badge on it?
  12. apologies if a little off topic but autonomous vehicle technology has links to EV development - I like the idea that tinkerers are still involved ;-) NY Times article on autonmous racing
  13. I think the same 5 min rate being accepted in the market :-)
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